Spring flood potential in west central Minnesota, rest of state remains average

The National Weather Service's second flood forecast for the season shows that the potential for flooding in Minnesota is average or normal, based on current conditions.

FloodForecast2040711-Flood 021.jpg
The second flood forecast for the 2022 season by the National Weather Service finds the risk of spring flood to be average or normal for this point, meaning the risk of repeating scenes like this from the spring of 2011 is low. File photo from south of Montevideo on April 7, 2011, as waters from the Minnesota River rose alongside a Yellow Medicine County road.
Tom Cherveny / West Central Tribune file photo

WILLMAR — The season’s second flood forecast by the National Weather Service continues to show the risk to be average or normal for this time, according to the report issued Thursday.

The snowpack remains within 25% of normal in most of the state’s river basins. The only exception is the headwaters for the Mississippi River, where snowfall is running 50 to 75% above normal.

For the Minnesota River system, all of the main factors that influence the flood probability are within normal parameters. River levels, soil moisture, frost depth and the water contained in the snowpack are all fairly close to normal, according to the report.

Montevideo remains as the location with the highest risk for flooding in the Minnesota River basin, but that risk is average for this time of year.

There is about an 85% chance of reaching minor flood stage in Montevideo, based on current conditions. There is a 17% probability of reaching major flood stage, which is above the normal of about 10%.


The Weather Service cautions that, as is always the case, “much will be determined by what happens with our temperatures and rainfall/snowfall in March and early April.”

At this point, there are no forecasts for major storm events in the upcoming week and the long-range forecast for March shows a slight increase in the probability for warmer than normal temperatures, according to the report.

Tom Cherveny is a regional and outdoors reporter for the West Central Tribune.
He has been a reporter with the West Central Tribune since 1993.

Cherveny can be reached via email at or by phone at 320-214-4335.
What To Read Next
BOLD Superintendent Jim Menton reports there were no injuries when an electrical fire broke out at the Olivia school on Wednesday morning, and the evacuation went well. He is hopeful that classes can be resumed on schedule Thursday.
BOLD students are being moved to Cross of Calvary Church in Olivia and buses were to begin transporting them home this morning after a water leak in the pool area set off fire alarms.
"Wait Until Dark," a Barn Theatre production, will have four more shows at 7 p.m. Feb. 9-11 and 2 p.m. Feb. 12.
The Chippewa County Board will issue requests for proposals asking for construction or engineering firms to analyze how a former bank building in downtown Montevideo could be repurposed for county use.