Looking ahead to state hoops

Last March, three Tribune-area boys teams and one girls team earned spots in the Minnesota State High School Basketball Tournament.
Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa was the only one of those teams to make it out of the first round. The Jaguars went on to their third Class A championship game in four years and they won their second state title.
BBE probably won’t make it back, sitting at 5-18 and readying for the playoffs in a Section 5A field that includes Nevis (19-2) and Kimball (15-5), both ranked in Minnesota-Scores’ QRF top-eight.
New London-Spicer’s boys and girls teams reached the state tournament last year, and the ACGC boys team lost to Rushford-Peterson, which lost to BBE in that Class A title game.
Anything can happen once the one-and-done postseason begins but, based on the season so far, here’s a best-guess look at which teams might have a state tournament run in them.
Boys
ACGC’s Falcons, the Melrose Dutchmen, the Mainstreeters of Sauk Centre and Central Minnesota Christian School are the top four area picks to earn a shot at playing games at Williams Arena or Target Center in about a month.
ACGC (16-7), based on QRF, is the top-ranked team in Section 2A North. Since losing four in a row around the Christmas and New Year holidays, the Falcons have won seven of nine games, losing only road games to Class AA teams Melrose and Sauk Centre.
The Falcons have a great inside-outside thing going, too, now that Colton Minnick, a starting forward on last season’s state tournament team, is getting back to form after missing much of the season with a leg injury. Alex Hendricks is a lethal 3-point shooter, Brody Larson is a solid scorer and distributor and Adam Johnson handles the boards well.
But 18-3 Springfield lurks in the 2A North and United South Central (16-6) and Mankato Loyola (16-6) are 1-2 in the 2A South. All four teams are in the Class A QRF’s top-16.
CMCS (17-2) is the top-ranked team in Section 3A North but the Bluejays had lost two of their last three before Tuesday’s game with Lac qui Parle Valley was postponed by poor weather.
Dawson-Boyd (16-5) has played the last five games without their best all-around threat, Michael Lee, who may try to return from a leg injury by the playoffs. The Blackjacks are No. 3 in 3A North. MACCRAY, which is No. 4, hung one of those two losses on CMCS by 11 points last week. The Wolverines (13-10) have had an up-and-down year but have won four straight.
And, of course, at No. 2 in the 3A North sits 19-3 Canby, a state tournament team last year that took the Bluejays to overtime in a loss in Prinsburg. In the 3A South is Murray County Central (19-4).
Melrose (20-3) and Sauk Centre (17-4) are probably the cream of the area crop in 2014-15, and Sauk Centre edged the Dutchmen 50-48 Tuesday to avenge a 67-53 loss on Dec. 12.
Problem is, they’d have to play each other to get out of Section 6AA North. That is if either team can make it to the sub-section championship game.
Long Prairie-Grey Eagle is 17-3 and ranked No. 3 behind the Dutchmen and Mainstreeters in 3A North. And in the South? Just 19-2 Eden Valley-Watkins.
Melrose’s other two losses have come at LPGE and St. Cloud Cathedral, ranked No. 1 in the 5AA North at 18-4. After losing three of its first six, the Mainstreeters have won 14 of 15 and 10 in a row.
It will take a spirited postseason for Litchfield, Morris/Chokio-Alberta, Minnewaska or New London-Spicer to get into the thick of Section 6AA – seven of the section’s 16 teams rank in the QRF top-50 in Class AA.
Same holds for Montevideo, BOLD, Lac qui Parle Valley or Yellow Medicine East in Section 3AA, but there is some room for an upset in that section.
Top 3AA North seed Redwood Valley (17-6) is 12-2 against the section, but only two other North teams are better than .500 against the other section teams. Five of the South’s eight teams are sub-.500 against section opponents.
Hancock will have a rough ride in Section 6A: Battle Lake is 22-1 and ranked No. 1 in the South. West Central is 16-5 and Ortonville is 15-6. Those three teams are 27-4 versus 6A opponents this year.
Willmar is struggling through a three-win season and pulling any upsets in Section 2AAA seem remote, at best. Mankato West (16-6), Mankato East (15-8) and Marshall (19-4) are all ranked among the QRF’s top 14 teams in Class AAA.
Girls
New London-Spicer lost a singular talent when Taylor Thunstedt, the area’s all-time leading scorer, graduated and moved on to become North Dakota State’s best 3-point shooter and fourth-leading scorer.
But, as they always seem to do, the Wildcats have kept cruising along.
NLS, behind a tall and talented front court and a new but solid backcourt, is ranked No. 1 in Class AA and in Section 6AA South based on QRF. Minnesota Basketball News has the 17-3 Wildcats ranked No. 5 in the state.
Yet, there’s a significant roadblock in their path back to state: Sauk Centre, No. 2 in Class AA in QRF and No. 3 in MBN’s poll, is 20-1 and the top-seeded team in 6AA North.
And that’s not all. In the South, Eden Valley-Watkins is 16-2 and Staples-Motley in the North is 15-4. Both teams are among the top 16 in QRF and MBN’s top 15. In the North, Osakis is 17-4 overall and 8-3 against section opponents.
Section 3AA South could be interesting. Redwood Valley is 18-4 overall and 12-1 against the section. But Yellow Medicine East (14-6) has won 12 of 14, including nine in a row, to move up to the South’s No. 2 seed. LQPV also could prove to be an intriguing opponent for Redwood. The Eagles are 16-3 and 4-1 against the section. Their three losses have come against teams that are a combined 49-12.
Dawson-Boyd (17-2) and CMCS (11-5) are having nice seasons but must contend with an old nemesis, Minneota, in Section 3A North. Minneota was 32-2 and lost in the Class A title game last year. This year, the Vikings are 18-4 and ranked No. 1 in the North. They’ve defeated D-B by 15 points, CMCS by 23, and 16-win, Class AA LQPV by 15.
Even with an upset, the Blackjacks or Bluejays would have to tangle with 3A South favorite Southwest Minnesota Christian (16-3), which is 12-1 against section opponents.
BBE is the other Class A team with a state-tournament shot. The Jaguars are 13-7 and the top-seeded team in Section 5A South and only two other South teams have records better than .500. But in the North are Browerville (18-1), which is No. 7 in QRF and MBN, and 15-5 Sebeka.
Willmar is 8-11 and No. 5 in Section 2AAA, but the Cardinals will have to pull a major upset in a section topped by Marshall, which is 20-2 and on a mission after losing in the Class AAA state championship game a year ago. Hutchinson is 12-7 and No. 2 in 2AAA and Mankato West follows at No. 3. The Cards have lost to both Mankato West and Hutch, and they’ll get a look at Marshall tonight at Willmar High School.